ETF Market Trends (02-01-2010): A Suspicious Rally, But We’ll Take It…
February 1st, 2010Market Direction Summary (02-01-2010)
Dow-30 +118.20 @ 10185.53; S&P 500 +15.32 @ 1089.19; Nasdaq 100 +19.68 @ 1760.72; Russell 2k +7.21 @ 609.25; VIX -2.03 @ 22.59; U.S. Dollar Index -0.30 @ 79.17; 10 Year Tsy Rates +0.45 @ 36.54; Crude Oil +2.30 @ 74.95; Gold +23.40 @ 1105.20; CRB +2.39 @ 267.98; DJ-U.S. Real Estate Index +3.07 @ 171.90
No comments this evening…
Price Volume Analysis…
The dominant price volume relationship for Monday’s trading was distribution (55% price up & volume down) and makes me a bit suspicious of this young rally.
A win is a win in the history books, but expanding volume is the sort of stuff that creates momentum and sustainability. The lack of it shows that many investors are not yet fully committed to buying these dips at this stage of the game.
ETF New Highs & Lows
ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)
- U.S. Equities (RSX, EWH, FXI, GAF, GUR)
- International Equities (N/A)
- Commodities (PTM)
- Forex (CYB, UUP)
- Bonds (AGG, MBB, SHY, TIP, TLT)
- Real Estate (ITB, REM, XHB)
ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)
- U.S. Equities (VXX, XLU, XLV, IHI)
- International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ILF, ISI, EWG, EWQ, EWU, IEV, VGK, EWA, EWJ, EWY, GAF, GML)
- Commodities (CWO, DBA)
- Forex (FXA, FXB, FXY, XRU)
- Bonds (AGG, BXW, EMB, HYG, IEF, JNK, MBB, MUB, SHY, TLT)
- Real Estate (N/A)
Closing Comments…
Should the market continue to rally from its extremely short-term oversold condition, which I previously mentioned as a possibility, then caution should be used as it approaches levels of resistance.
Unless it can be reversed, the breakdown in the intermediate downtrend really increases the potential for further downside risks and volatility.
Signing off at Hillbent on The Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…
ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (02-01-2010)
| U.S. Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Equity Indexes | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| DIA (DJ Industrials) | 101.84 | 1.28% | 8.77% | 60 | down | down | up |
| SPY (S&P 500) | 109.06 | 1.56% | 29.05% | 99 | down | down | up |
| QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) | 43.26 | 1.10% | 55.43% | 95 | down | down | up |
| IWM (Russell 2000) | 60.82 | 1.18% | 17.54% | 85 | down | down | up |
| VXX (VIX Futures) | 30.16 | -4.68% | -14.18% | 10 | up | down | down |
| Major Sectors | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| IYZ (Telecom) | 18.41 | 1.04% | -25.99% | 83 | down | down | up |
| XLB (Materials) | 31.31 | 3.88% | 103.33% | 97 | down | down | up |
| XLE (Energy) | 56.30 | 3.30% | 38.57% | 99 | down | down | up |
| XLF (Financials) | 14.43 | 1.76% | 54.29% | 97 | down | down | up |
| XLI (Industrials) | 27.79 | 1.50% | 94.93% | 97 | down | down | up |
| XLK (Technology) | 21.20 | 1.15% | 85.19% | 75 | down | down | up |
| XLP (Consumer Staples) | 26.43 | 0.88% | 29.11% | 90 | down | down | up |
| XLU (Utilities) | 29.72 | 0.64% | -23.22% | 95 | down | down | up |
| XLV (Health Care) | 31.45 | 0.54% | -16.17% | 71 | down | up | up |
| XLY (Consumer Discrtn) | 29.28 | 1.28% | 85.87% | 100 | down | down | up |
| Key Industries | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BBH (Biotech) | 102.35 | -0.17% | -10.26% | 48 | up | up | up |
| CRBQ (Global Commodities) | 40.44 | 2.28% | -39.43% | 69 | down | down | n/a |
| CUT (Global Timber) | 17.18 | 2.57% | -58.70% | 89 | down | down | up |
| FAA (Airlines) | 30.67 | 2.51% | -83.28% | 100 | down | up | up |
| FAN (Global Wind Energy) | 13.85 | 1.47% | -76.36% | 57 | down | down | down |
| FDN (DJ Internet Index) | 23.59 | 0.64% | -37.94% | 86 | down | down | up |
| GDX (Gold Miners) | 42.94 | 5.45% | 41.95% | 99 | down | down | down |
| HAP (Hard Assets Producers) | 32.03 | 2.89% | 290.96% | 91 | down | down | up |
| IAI (Broker-Dealers) | 26.57 | 1.80% | 120.67% | 69 | down | down | up |
| IGF (Global Infrastructure) | 33.52 | 1.92% | -23.89% | 82 | down | down | up |
| IGN (GSTI Networking) | 25.59 | 1.47% | 0.60% | 85 | down | down | up |
| IHI (Medical Devices) | 53.21 | 0.45% | 31.64% | 84 | down | up | up |
| ITA (Aerospace & Defense) | 51.41 | 1.34% | -16.08% | 97 | down | up | up |
| IYT (Transportation) | 71.24 | 1.67% | 11.35% | 91 | down | down | up |
| KIE (Insurance) | 35.69 | 1.19% | -27.82% | 83 | down | up | up |
| KOL (Coal) | 33.91 | 3.23% | -21.23% | 96 | down | down | up |
| MOO (Agribusiness) | 41.97 | 2.19% | 90.82% | 82 | down | down | up |
| NLR (Nuclear Energy) | 21.85 | 2.20% | 44.19% | 95 | down | down | down |
| OIH (Oil Services) | 122.40 | 3.83% | 21.61% | 100 | down | up | up |
| PHO (Water Resources) | 15.97 | 0.69% | -28.24% | 58 | down | down | up |
| PPH (Pharmaceuticals) | 66.02 | 0.62% | -67.02% | 62 | down | up | up |
| PXR (Emerg Mkts Infrastructure) | 40.58 | 1.81% | -67.97% | 43 | down | down | up |
| RKH (Regional Banks) | 80.67 | 1.26% | 59.57% | 78 | up | up | up |
| RTH (Retail) | 92.11 | 0.04% | 13.53% | 69 | down | down | up |
| SEA (Global Shipping) | 13.95 | 1.23% | -12.31% | 93 | down | up | up |
| SLX (Steel) | 57.73 | 5.91% | 23.48% | 98 | down | down | up |
| SMH (Semiconductor) | 25.30 | 2.18% | -7.51% | 81 | down | down | up |
| SWH (Software) | 40.02 | 0.98% | -76.67% | 100 | down | down | up |
| TAN (Global Solar Energy) | 9.02 | 2.85% | -44.28% | 89 | down | down | up |
| XME (Metals & Mining) | 48.81 | 5.72% | 89.25% | 94 | down | down | up |
| International Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Americas | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWC (MSCI Canada) | 24.90 | 1.88% | 47.32% | 80 | down | down | up |
| EWW (MSCI Mexico) | 47.09 | 2.37% | -36.50% | 95 | down | down | up |
| EWZ( MSCI Brazil) | 67.58 | 4.47% | 36.05% | 93 | down | down | up |
| ILF (Latin America 40) | 44.15 | 3.59% | 62.25% | 95 | down | down | up |
| ISI (S&P 1500) | 49.02 | 1.32% | 134.25% | 91 | down | down | up |
| Europe | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWG (MSCI Germany) | 20.74 | 1.97% | -19.99% | 71 | down | down | up |
| EWQ (MSCI France) | 24.32 | 2.06% | 149.90% | 14 | down | down | up |
| EWU (United Kingdom) | 15.51 | 0.52% | 171.26% | 0 | down | down | up |
| IEV (S&P Europe 350) | 37.21 | 2.25% | -34.68% | 96 | down | down | up |
| RSX (Russia) | 32.08 | 3.22% | 1.77% | 100 | down | up | up |
| VGK (Vanguard Europe) | 46.54 | 2.42% | -7.76% | 88 | down | down | up |
| Asian-Pacific | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWA (MSCI Australia) | 21.58 | 2.27% | 47.65% | 92 | down | down | up |
| EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) | 15.03 | 2.73% | 100.76% | 95 | down | down | up |
| EWJ (MSCI Japan) | 9.94 | 1.02% | 29.02% | 67 | down | up | up |
| EWM (MSCI Malaysia) | 10.62 | 0.66% | -33.75% | 100 | down | down | up |
| EWS (MSCI Singapore) | 10.94 | 1.48% | -1.78% | 100 | down | down | up |
| EWT (MSCI Taiwan) | 12.06 | -0.08% | 40.70% | 63 | down | down | up |
| EWY (MSCI South Korea) | 46.53 | 2.40% | 5.75% | 93 | down | down | up |
| FXI (FSTE China) | 39.56 | 3.13% | 71.65% | 90 | down | down | up |
| IF (Indonesia Fund) | 9.67 | 2.00% | -45.55% | 95 | down | down | up |
| IFN (India Fund) | 29.35 | 1.59% | 0.03% | 65 | down | down | up |
| VNM (Vietnam) | 25.30 | 3.48% | -45.46% | 100 | down | down | down |
| Emerging Markets | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) | 39.31 | 2.69% | 43.18% | 95 | down | down | up |
| EWX (Emerging Small Caps) | 46.00 | 1.97% | -6.61% | 100 | down | down | up |
| GAF (Middle East & Africa) | 61.02 | 1.97% | 82.57% | 70 | down | down | up |
| GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) | 69.48 | 1.49% | -51.63% | 42 | down | down | up |
| GML (Emerging Latin America) | 73.01 | 3.19% | 0.92% | 71 | down | down | up |
| GUR (Emerging Europe) | 44.43 | 3.98% | 19.07% | 80 | down | up | up |
| Alternative Assets | |||||||
| Commodities | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| COW (Livestock) | 27.41 | -1.83% | 181.86% | 21 | down | down | down |
| DBA (Agriculture) | 25.26 | -0.16% | -25.77% | 13 | down | down | down |
| DBB (Base Metals) | 20.15 | 1.77% | 56.67% | 83 | down | down | up |
| DBC (Commodities) | 23.24 | 2.42% | 38.85% | 100 | down | down | up |
| GLD (Gold) | 108.35 | 2.26% | -19.62% | 94 | down | down | up |
| JJC (Copper) | 42.39 | 2.12% | 22.28% | 96 | down | down | up |
| JJG (Grains) | 35.35 | 0.68% | 13.76% | 29 | down | down | down |
| PTM (Platinum) | 18.51 | 2.95% | -15.48% | 84 | down | up | up |
| SLV (Silver) | 16.36 | 2.89% | 6.35% | 93 | down | down | up |
| UGA (Gasoline) | 34.09 | 1.19% | -29.30% | 79 | down | down | up |
| UNG (Natural Gas) | 9.80 | 5.26% | 7.62% | 75 | down | up | down |
| USO (Oil) | 36.72 | 3.03% | -7.28% | 99 | down | down | up |
| Forex | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BZF (Brazilian Real) | 25.28 | 2.93% | -37.19% | 97 | down | down | up |
| CEW (Emerging Currency) | 21.75 | 0.00% | -78.88% | 20 | down | down | up |
| CYB (Chinese Yuan) | 25.32 | -0.04% | 20.93% | 100 | lateral | lateral | lateral |
| DBV (G10 Currencies) | 23.13 | 0.57% | -36.68% | 76 | down | down | up |
| FXA (Australian Dollar) | 89.15 | 0.74% | 0.02% | 95 | down | down | up |
| FXB (British Pound) | 159.10 | -0.15% | 16.80% | 92 | down | down | up |
| FXC (Canadian Dollar) | 93.79 | 0.64% | 20.36% | 96 | down | down | up |
| FXE (Euro) | 139.07 | 0.49% | -21.12% | 97 | down | down | down |
| FXF (Swiss Franc) | 94.24 | 0.46% | -12.06% | 100 | down | down | up |
| FXM (Mexican Peso) | 77.64 | 1.56% | 2.73% | 95 | down | up | up |
| FXY (Japanese Yen) | 109.46 | -0.45% | -28.17% | 40 | down | down | up |
| ICN (Indian Rupee) | 25.30 | -0.55% | -47.12% | 83 | down | up | up |
| UUP (U.S. Dollar) | 23.34 | -0.47% | -18.76% | 0 | up | up | down |
| XRU (Russian Ruble) | 32.52 | -1.27% | 76.70% | 100 | down | down | up |
| Bonds | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| AGG (Investment Grade) | 104.18 | -0.14% | -32.17% | 19 | down | down | up |
| BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) | 55.93 | 0.17% | 105.14% | 10 | down | down | up |
| EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) | 100.74 | -0.01% | -33.70% | 22 | down | down | up |
| HYG (Hi Yld Corp) | 85.98 | 0.48% | 33.43% | 52 | down | down | up |
| IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) | 90.10 | -0.33% | 21.75% | 41 | down | down | down |
| JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) | 38.63 | 0.25% | 3.29% | 50 | down | down | up |
| MBB (Mortgage Bonds) | 107.07 | -0.06% | 1.41% | 22 | up | up | up |
| MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) | 102.85 | 0.03% | 135.19% | 81 | down | up | up |
| SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) | 83.50 | -0.04% | 25.12% | 78 | up | down | down |
| TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) | 105.24 | -0.04% | -11.18% | 83 | up | up | up |
| TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) | 91.15 | -0.91% | 13.09% | 15 | down | down | down |
| WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) | 55.28 | 0.95% | -51.33% | 77 | down | down | up |
| Real Estate | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| FIO (Industrial Office) | 22.89 | 1.96% | 124.18% | 86 | down | down | up |
| ICF (Cohen & Steers) | 50.31 | 2.01% | 51.72% | 85 | down | down | up |
| ITB (Home Construction) | 12.36 | 0.16% | -83.23% | 65 | down | up | up |
| IYR (DJ US Real Estate) | 44.22 | 1.82% | -8.21% | 87 | down | down | up |
| REM (Mortgage Reits) | 14.61 | -0.03% | 451.69% | 13 | down | down | up |
| REZ (Residential Index) | 29.73 | 0.88% | 45.93% | 37 | down | down | up |
| RTL (Retail Index) | 20.35 | -0.02% | -60.00% | 100 | down | down | up |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | 15.21 | 0.66% | -1.39% | 67 | down | up | up |
*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100
**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend
***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 02-01-2010
| % Stocks > Mov Avg | 20-Day MA | 50-Day MA | 200-Day MA |
| Today | 28.11% | 48.71% | 78.38% |
| Yesterday | 23.91% | 43.54% | 76.25% |
| Last Week | 33.70% | 56.13% | 81.56% |
| Last Month | 69.61% | 73.78% | 84.56% |
| Daily Market Stats | NYSE | NASDAQ | |
| Advancers | 2434 | 1716 | |
| Decliners | 643 | 985 | |
| A/D Ratio | 3.79 | 1.74 | |
| Advancing Shares | 3816761800 | 1816461800 | |
| Declining Shares | 446991800 | 413432300 | |
| A/D Shares Ratio | 8.54 | 4.39 | |
| Vol % Chg | -34% | -28% | |
| Vol % Chg vs. Avg | -12% | -7% | |
| 52 Week New Highs | 89 | 23 | |
| 52 Week New Lows | 7 | 1 | |
| % Stocks Uptrend | ST | MT | LT |
| Hillbent 3000 | 15.83% | 42.57% | 82.27% |
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