ETF Market Trends (02-02-2010): Earnings Take Center Stage with Employment Reports Waiting in the Wings
February 2nd, 2010Market Direction Summary (02-02-2010)
Dow-30 +111.32 @ 10296.85; S&P 500 +14.13 @ 1103.32; Nasdaq 100 +16.20 @ 1776.92; Russell 2k +4.80 @ 614.05; VIX -1.11 @ 21.48; U.S. Dollar Index -0.17 @ 79.00; 10 Year Tsy Rates -0.19 @ 36.35; Crude Oil +2.05 @ 77.00; Gold +9.10 @ 1114.30; CRB +5.21 @ 273.19; DJ-U.S. Real Estate Index +2.88 @ 174.78
Yes, it really is earnings season. Refusing to be upstaged anymore by EU issues related to Greece’s sovereign debt problems or even Washington’s political haggling over regulatory reforms and economic recovery assistance programs, positive earnings results finally earned some respect from the market’s audience.
However, a slightly better than expected Pending Home Sales index (Dec-2009 actual @ 96.6 vs. Nov-2009 revised @ 95.4) played a supporting role. The just barely good enough housing results were more than good enough for the Global Timber Fund (CUT) and homebuilder exchange traded funds (i.e. XHB and ITB). In fact, Hillbent’s entire real estate ETF universe responded positively and experienced six short-term and three intermediate term trend upgrades. Overall volume increased signficantly within this group (see below).
Commodities, having succumbed to renewed dollar strength and being extremely oversold, rebounded to be included amongst today’s top performers. Notable trend upgrades occurred for the DB Agriculture (DBA), DB Commodities (DBC), Gold Trust (GLD), Platinum Fund (PTM).
Energy related ETFs, Gasoline Fund (UGA) and Oil Fund (USO), continued to move on the momentum created by yesterday’s better than expected gains in the ISM Manufacturing Index report.
DB Base Metals Fund (DBB) remains well below its short and intermediate trend resistance levels, but appears to have found support at its 38.2% retracement level. Acting as a bullish catalyst for industrial metals was January’s reported U.S. Vehicle sales at Ford being up an annualized 25%. DBB closed up 0.84% on surging volume.
Price Volume Analysis…
Although today’s dominant trading pattern was bullish (36% price up & volume up) and showed a definite improvement in morale, the breadth was hardly a cause for celebration.
Come on buyers… Let’s pump up the volume! We can’t hear you!
ETF New Highs & Lows…
ETF 5 Day New Highs: (Note * denotes 250 day new high)
- U.S. Equities (DIA, SPY, IYZ, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLP, XLV, XLY, BBH, CUT, GDX, HAP, IGF, ITA, KIE, PPH, PXR, RKH, SLX)
- International Equities (EWC, EWW, EWZ, ILF, ISI, EWG, IEV, RSX, VGK, EWH, EWJ, FXI, IFN, VNM, EEM, GAF, GML, GUR)
- Commodities (DBA, DBC, GLD, PTM, SLV, UGA, UNG, USO)
- Forex (BZF, CEW, FXC, FXM, XRU)
- Bonds (N/A)
- Real Estate (ICF, ITB, IYR, REM, REZ, RTL, XHB)
ETF 5 Day New Lows: (Note * denotes 250 day new low)
- U.S. Equities (N/A)
- International Equities (EWT)
- Commodities (N/A)
- Forex (FXA)
- Bonds (BWX, EMB, JNK, TLT)
- Real Estate (N/A)
Closing Comments…
The market, even after two consecutive days of positive performance, still remains widely oversold from a short-term perspective. This gives it plenty of stretching room should bulls decide to make a charge.
However, consensus estimates and actual results for the all important employment reports (ADP on Wednesday, Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Employment Situation on Friday) will overshadow the market as the trading week winds down to a conclusion.
In regards to earnings, there are 63 S&P 500 constituents reporting quarterly results over the next three days. Some that could help us connect the dots for a better macro-picture of the economy are consumer credit barometers: MasterCard (MA) and Visa (V); real estate bellwethers: CB Richard Ellis (CBG), Simon Property (SPG), Kimco Realty (KIM), and Weyerhauser (WY); international energy offshore driller: Diamond Offshore (DO); and technology infrastructure leaders: Cisco (CSCO), Akamai (AKAM), Broadcom (BRCM), and Memc Electronic Materials (WFR).
Fasten your seatbelts, the rubber will begin to meet the road of the true Market Direction over the next three days!
Signing off at Hillbent on The Market Direction and ETF Market Trends™…
ETF Market Trends™ Monitor (02-02-2010)
| U.S. Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Equity Indexes | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| DIA (DJ Industrials) | 102.88 | 1.04% | -17.00% | 85 | down | down | up |
| SPY (S&P 500) | 110.38 | 1.21% | 48.52% | 88 | down | down | up |
| QQQQ (Nasdaq 100) | 43.65 | 0.90% | 25.68% | 83 | down | down | up |
| IWM (Russell 2000) | 61.49 | 1.10% | 37.50% | 93 | down | up | up |
| VXX (VIX Futures) | 28.97 | -3.78% | 104.11% | 13 | up | down | down |
| Major Sectors | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| IYZ (Telecom) | 18.66 | 1.09% | -18.44% | 75 | down | down | up |
| XLB (Materials) | 31.44 | 0.32% | 88.72% | 72 | down | down | up |
| XLE (Energy) | 57.05 | 1.31% | 41.47% | 92 | down | down | up |
| XLF (Financials) | 14.56 | 0.97% | 34.33% | 83 | down | down | up |
| XLI (Industrials) | 28.32 | 1.91% | 146.33% | 90 | up | up | up |
| XLK (Technology) | 21.41 | 0.99% | 31.99% | 81 | down | down | up |
| XLP (Consumer Staples) | 26.80 | 1.44% | 6.40% | 98 | up | up | up |
| XLU (Utilities) | 29.96 | 0.81% | -24.79% | 96 | down | down | up |
| XLV (Health Care) | 32.11 | 2.07% | 28.18% | 99 | up | up | up |
| XLY (Consumer Discrtn) | 29.69 | 1.40% | 15.03% | 98 | up | up | up |
| Key Industries | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BBH (Biotech) | 103.78 | 1.42% | -53.95% | 99 | up | up | up |
| CRBQ (Global Commodities) | 41.43 | 1.42% | -78.58% | 94 | down | down | n/a |
| CUT (Global Timber) | 17.49 | 1.80% | -69.87% | 83 | down | down | up |
| FAA (Airlines) | 31.38 | 2.42% | -63.06% | 88 | down | up | up |
| FAN (Global Wind Energy) | 14.01 | 1.16% | -2.85% | 55 | down | down | down |
| FDN (DJ Internet Index) | 23.71 | 0.38% | -4.20% | 78 | down | down | up |
| GDX (Gold Miners) | 43.01 | 0.14% | 46.88% | 33 | down | down | down |
| HAP (Hard Assets Producers) | 32.40 | 1.15% | -65.53% | 78 | down | down | up |
| IAI (Broker-Dealers) | 26.75 | 0.72% | 255.19% | 40 | down | down | up |
| IGF (Global Infrastructure) | 33.63 | 1.49% | -64.73% | 22 | down | down | up |
| IGN (GSTI Networking) | 25.92 | 1.17% | 46.98% | 84 | down | down | up |
| IHI (Medical Devices) | 54.01 | 1.48% | 13.05% | 91 | down | up | up |
| ITA (Aerospace & Defense) | 52.29 | 1.71% | -13.24% | 94 | down | up | up |
| IYT (Transportation) | 71.89 | 0.84% | -2.91% | 94 | down | down | up |
| KIE (Insurance) | 36.40 | 1.99% | 104.26% | 96 | up | up | up |
| KOL (Coal) | 34.21 | 0.88% | -19.92% | 87 | down | down | up |
| MOO (Agribusiness) | 42.72 | 1.43% | 15.86% | 84 | down | down | up |
| NLR (Nuclear Energy) | 21.86 | 0.18% | -50.47% | 47 | down | down | up |
| OIH (Oil Services) | 123.47 | 0.88% | 32.00% | 75 | down | up | up |
| PHO (Water Resources) | 16.17 | 1.32% | -19.47% | 70 | down | down | up |
| PPH (Pharmaceuticals) | 67.37 | 2.04% | -20.33% | 89 | up | up | up |
| PXR (Emerg Mkts Infrastructure) | 41.47 | 0.87% | -27.90% | 83 | down | down | up |
| RKH (Regional Banks) | 80.73 | 0.07% | 63.48% | 53 | up | up | up |
| RTH (Retail) | 93.01 | 1.03% | 25.94% | 82 | up | down | up |
| SEA (Global Shipping) | 14.20 | 2.38% | -31.94% | 93 | down | up | up |
| SLX (Steel) | 58.88 | 1.89% | 31.38% | 92 | down | down | up |
| SMH (Semiconductor) | 25.59 | 1.15% | 1.83% | 71 | down | down | up |
| SWH (Software) | 40.37 | 0.92% | -59.05% | 88 | down | down | up |
| TAN (Global Solar Energy) | 9.15 | 1.55% | -50.45% | 75 | down | down | up |
| XME (Metals & Mining) | 49.54 | 1.35% | 24.89% | 88 | down | down | up |
| International Equity ETFs | |||||||
| Americas | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWC (MSCI Canada) | 25.20 | 1.20% | 5.61% | 70 | down | down | up |
| EWW (MSCI Mexico) | 47.66 | 1.13% | 8.12% | 92 | down | down | up |
| EWZ( MSCI Brazil) | 68.70 | 1.64% | 36.43% | 79 | down | down | up |
| ILF (Latin America 40) | 44.69 | 1.22% | 13.10% | 83 | down | down | up |
| ISI (S&P 1500) | 49.67 | 1.33% | 30.05% | 100 | down | down | up |
| Europe | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWG (MSCI Germany) | 21.02 | 1.45% | 441.80% | 73 | down | down | up |
| EWQ (MSCI France) | 24.86 | 1.72% | 28.54% | 95 | down | down | up |
| EWU (United Kingdom) | 15.93 | 2.71% | -28.97% | 85 | down | down | up |
| IEV (S&P Europe 350) | 37.77 | 1.62% | -12.92% | 82 | down | down | up |
| RSX (Russia) | 32.74 | 2.06% | 4.86% | 100 | up | up | up |
| VGK (Vanguard Europe) | 47.30 | 1.55% | -15.07% | 92 | down | down | up |
| Asian-Pacific | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EWA (MSCI Australia) | 21.77 | 0.69% | 34.11% | 82 | down | down | up |
| EWH (MSCI Hong Kong) | 15.20 | 1.20% | 154.92% | 90 | up | down | up |
| EWJ (MSCI Japan) | 10.11 | 1.91% | 65.05% | 82 | down | up | up |
| EWM (MSCI Malaysia) | 10.63 | 0.09% | -25.37% | 56 | down | down | up |
| EWS (MSCI Singapore) | 10.92 | -0.18% | -14.96% | 100 | down | down | up |
| EWT (MSCI Taiwan) | 11.80 | -1.99% | 9.99% | 0 | down | down | up |
| EWY (MSCI South Korea) | 46.68 | 0.34% | 127.20% | 90 | down | down | up |
| FXI (FSTE China) | 39.84 | 0.71% | 19.30% | 92 | down | down | up |
| IF (Indonesia Fund) | 9.75 | 0.83% | -41.89% | 93 | down | down | up |
| IFN (India Fund) | 29.90 | 1.67% | -7.06% | 96 | down | down | up |
| VNM (Vietnam) | 25.50 | 0.79% | 118.95% | 100 | up | down | down |
| Emerging Markets | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| EEM (MSCI Emerging Mkts) | 39.63 | 0.81% | 51.68% | 88 | down | down | up |
| EWX (Emerging Small Caps) | 45.81 | -0.22% | 118.02% | 71 | down | down | up |
| GAF (Middle East & Africa) | 62.24 | 1.42% | 33.50% | 83 | up | up | up |
| GMF (Emerging Asia Pacific) | 69.90 | -0.44% | -50.71% | 96 | down | down | up |
| GML (Emerging Latin America) | 74.27 | 1.18% | 51.24% | 57 | down | down | up |
| GUR (Emerging Europe) | 45.23 | 1.80% | 54.78% | 85 | up | up | up |
| Alternative Assets | |||||||
| Commodities | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| COW (Livestock) | 27.47 | 1.13% | -74.83% | 18 | down | down | down |
| DBA (Agriculture) | 25.66 | 1.54% | 215.31% | 91 | down | down | up |
| DBB (Base Metals) | 20.36 | 0.84% | 123.75% | 82 | down | down | up |
| DBC (Commodities) | 23.74 | 2.15% | 581.90% | 94 | up | down | up |
| GLD (Gold) | 109.13 | 0.72% | -22.91% | 53 | up | down | up |
| JJC (Copper) | 42.31 | -0.05% | 42.44% | 53 | down | down | up |
| JJG (Grains) | 36.00 | 2.26% | -23.14% | 61 | down | down | down |
| PTM (Platinum) | 18.83 | 1.51% | -44.92% | 81 | up | up | up |
| SLV (Silver) | 16.35 | -0.06% | -7.52% | 37 | down | down | up |
| UGA (Gasoline) | 35.54 | 3.94% | 24.97% | 94 | up | up | up |
| UNG (Natural Gas) | 9.88 | 0.71% | 23.46% | 50 | down | up | down |
| USO (Oil) | 37.53 | 2.21% | 30.02% | 66 | up | down | up |
| Forex | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| BZF (Brazilian Real) | 25.48 | 0.55% | 150.13% | 86 | down | down | up |
| CEW (Emerging Currency) | 21.94 | 0.32% | 1023.20% | 85 | down | down | up |
| CYB (Chinese Yuan) | 25.31 | -0.04% | -30.37% | 67 | lateral | lateral | lateral |
| DBV (G10 Currencies) | 23.15 | 0.04% | -71.50% | 75 | down | down | up |
| FXA (Australian Dollar) | 88.71 | -0.49% | 55.06% | 98 | down | down | up |
| FXB (British Pound) | 159.29 | 0.13% | -31.21% | 74 | down | down | up |
| FXC (Canadian Dollar) | 94.19 | 0.42% | -10.70% | 93 | down | down | up |
| FXE (Euro) | 139.38 | 0.24% | -48.24% | 81 | down | down | down |
| FXF (Swiss Franc) | 94.34 | 0.06% | -33.47% | 71 | down | down | up |
| FXM (Mexican Peso) | 77.88 | 0.30% | -51.66% | 84 | up | up | up |
| FXY (Japanese Yen) | 109.79 | 0.32% | -59.74% | 42 | up | down | up |
| ICN (Indian Rupee) | 25.35 | 0.12% | 385.49% | 59 | down | up | up |
| UUP (U.S. Dollar) | 23.27 | -0.34% | -29.74% | 0 | up | up | down |
| XRU (Russian Ruble) | 32.95 | 1.51% | 431.75% | 89 | down | down | up |
| Bonds | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| AGG (Investment Grade) | 104.29 | 0.12% | -16.25% | 71 | down | down | up |
| BWX (Int’l Tsy Bonds) | 56.15 | 0.43% | -1.11% | 67 | down | down | up |
| EMB (Emerging Markets Bonds) | 100.54 | -0.24% | 901.62% | 6 | down | down | up |
| HYG (Hi Yld Corp) | 86.31 | 0.30% | 78.72% | 51 | down | down | up |
| IEF (7-10 Yr Tsy) | 90.24 | 0.17% | -18.25% | 93 | down | down | down |
| JNK (Hi Yld Bonds) | 38.67 | 0.21% | -5.49% | 69 | down | down | up |
| MBB (Mortgage Bonds) | 107.22 | 0.15% | -38.55% | 44 | down | up | up |
| MUB (Nat’l Muni Bond) | 102.89 | 0.02% | 19.93% | 69 | down | up | up |
| SHY (1-3 Yr Tsy) | 83.51 | 0.01% | -9.41% | 75 | up | down | down |
| TIP (Tsy Inflation Protect) | 105.43 | 0.18% | 3.48% | 80 | up | up | up |
| TLT (20 Yr+ Tsy) | 91.41 | 0.29% | -4.23% | 90 | down | down | down |
| WIP (Int’l Inflation Protect) | 55.25 | +0.14% | 188.14% | 56 | down | down | up |
| Real Estate | Price | %Chg | Vol% | PMI | ST | MT | LT |
| FIO (Industrial Office) | 22.86 | 0.26% | -95.91% | 100 | down | down | up |
| ICF (Cohen & Steers) | 51.12 | 1.45% | 103.01% | 85 | up | up | up |
| ITB (Home Construction) | 13.09 | 5.34% | 79.65% | 96 | up | up | up |
| IYR (DJ US Real Estate) | 44.95 | 1.65% | 28.48% | 83 | up | up | up |
| REM (Mortgage Reits) | 14.76 | 1.03% | 103.06% | 88 | up | down | up |
| REZ (Residential Index) | 30.09 | 1.91% | 119.37% | 54 | up | up | up |
| RTL (Retail Index) | 20.67 | 2.06% | 300.60% | 52 | down | up | up |
| XHB (Homebuilders) | 15.85 | 4.82% | 116.46% | 84 | up | up | up |
*PMI measures strength of % daily trading range on scale of 0 to 100
**ST = Short-Term Trend; MT = Intermediate Trend; LT = Long-Term or Primary Trend
***Vol% measures % change in daily volume vs. average daily volume
Market Momentum Diary: 02-02-2010
| % Stocks > Mov Avg | 20-Day MA | 50-Day MA | 200-Day MA |
| Today | 35.39% | 53.63% | 79.44% |
| Yesterday | 27.93% | 48.65% | 78.49% |
| Last Week | 30.78% | 52.70% | 80.31% |
| Last Month | 82.29% | 82.24% | 86.65% |
| Daily Market Stats | NYSE | NASDAQ | |
| Advancers | 2325 | 1468 | |
| Decliners | 746 | 1217 | |
| A/D Ratio | 3.12 | 1.21 | |
| Advancing Shares | 4073942300 | 1797864500 | |
| Declining Shares | 818024200 | 657533800 | |
| A/D Shares Ratio | 4.98 | 2.73 | |
| Vol % Chg | 14% | 12% | |
| Vol % Chg vs. Avg | 1% | 5% | |
| 52 Week New Highs | 123 | 27 | |
| 52 Week New Lows | 4 | 2 | |
| % Stocks Uptrend | ST | MT | LT |
| Hillbent 3000 | 31.49% | 47.95% | 75.86% |
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